Small and Medium-Sized Businesses in 2026: A Genuine Recovery or Just a Flash in the Pan?
The German economy faces an ambivalent situation: On the one hand, the war in Iran is slowing the modest recovery; on the other hand, small and medium-sized enterprises are showing the first positive signs. The latest Spring 2026 study by Creditreform Economic Research —based on a survey of 1,850 small and medium-sized enterprises—provides fascinating insights. Is the SME sector finally returning to stability—or is this merely a short-term improvement?
The Business Climate: Back in Positive Territory for the First Time in Years
After two years of recession and one year of stagnation, there is reason for hope: The Creditreform Business Climate Index (CGK) climbed to +5.3 points—its highest level in four years. By comparison, the index stood at -2.9 points last year.
However, the euphoria
is subdued: Most companies continue to view the current situation as negative (Situation Index: -3.4 points). Sentiment remains fragile—a genuine turnaround is not yet in sight.
A glimmer of hope: Small and medium-sized businesses’ outlook for the future has brightened significantly. The expectations index doubled compared to the previous year and now stands at +14.3 points—a level in line with that seen from 2021 to 2023.
But be careful: this optimism is fueled primarily by short-term factors such as rising demand and government economic stimulus measures.
According to experts, this is therefore not sustainable growth, but rather a “temporary economic boost.” Without structural reforms, the recovery risks remaining nothing more than a debt-financed flash in the pan.
Revenue is rising—but companies remain reluctant to invest
The first three months of 2026 brought encouraging figures:
- More than 25% of companies reported an increase in revenue (previous year: only 20%).
- Nearly one in three companies expects further increases in the coming months (previous year: 28%).
Despite the positive signs regarding sales, small and medium-sized businesses remain cautious about investing:
Only 44.7% of respondents are currently planning investments (previous year: 41.7%). This figure is significantly below the 10-year average. The reasons cited for this reluctance continue to be structural weaknesses in Germany as a business location, as well as the ongoing high level of uncertainty caused by external factors (e.g., the Iran crisis, energy prices).
Equity: Historically Strong Position—A Ray of Hope
Equity ratios show a surprisingly positive trend:
- 36% of companies are considered to have strong equity (equity ratio of > 30%)—the highest figure in 30 years.
- The proportion of companies with low equity ratios ( <, 10%) fell to 27.6%.
Conclusion: Small and medium-sized businesses have strengthened their financial structure in recent years—an important buffer for future challenges.
GFL’s team of experts is here to help you further improve your working capital during these challenging times, whether through receivables protection in the form of trade credit insurance or surety bonds, or through liquidity solutions such as factoring or loan agreements. Please feel free to contact us to discuss this further.
