The global energy transition is not only transforming our power grids and propulsion technologies—it is also triggering one of the most profound upheavals in the commodities markets in the coming years. Copper, nickel, and aluminum—the classic industrial metals—are taking center stage: By 2035, structural supply shortages could emerge that will not only drive prices up in the long term but also pose strategic challenges for entire industries. A recent analysis by Coface’s audit division shows that the combination of sharply rising demand and sluggish supply could mark the beginning of a new long-term upward trend in metal prices.

The Energy Transition as a Driver of Demand

Demand for metals has always been driven by major structural trends. Urbanization, infrastructure investments, and the continued growth of emerging markets continue to fuel solid underlying demand today. For example, the construction sector alone accounts for about 50 percent of global steel consumption, and electrification already accounts for about three-quarters of global copper demand.

Added to this basic demand is now an additional, dynamic driver: the energy transition and digitalization. Renewable energy, electric vehicles, batteries, the expansion of power grids, and the rapidly growing data center market are exceptionally metal-intensive. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), clean technologies could already account for around 35 percent of global demand for copper and nickel by 2035. As a result, decarbonization is transforming the metals markets from cyclical industrial commodities into key strategic resources.

Why Supply Can’t Keep Up

While demand is accelerating, supply is reaching its limits. Less than one percent of all mineral exploration projects actually develop into a productive mine. And even for successful projects, it now takes, on average, just under a decade—or, more precisely, nearly 20 years—for new capacity to reach the market; in the early 2000s, it took less than 15 years. Low returns on investment, declining ore grades in deposits, and rising production costs are further contributing to sluggish supply.

The situation is exacerbated by a high degree of geographic concentration in supply chains. Indonesia accounts for about 67 percent of global nickel ore production, while China controls more than half of the world’s refining capacity for several key metals. Such dependencies make supply chains vulnerable to disruptions of all kinds. Added to this is protectionism: As of the end of 2025, there were 1,138 trade policy measures in effect worldwide affecting the import or export of critical minerals—compared to just 357 ten years ago. Companies that rely on stable metal supplies must urgently take these developments into account in their procurement strategies.

Structural supply shortfalls in copper, nickel, and aluminum

The imbalance between supply and demand will become particularly evident by 2035 for those metals that are essential to the energy transition. Even without a further acceleration of decarbonization, demand for aluminum, copper, and nickel will grow faster than supply over the next ten years—with deficits varying depending on the metal.

Copper: The Backbone of Electrification

Copper is essential for the electrification of economies and the expansion of digital infrastructure. Depending on the scenario, the supply shortfall could range from 1.5 to 6.5 million metric tons by 2035. In a net-zero emissions scenario, this would correspond to up to 17 percent of global demand. The booming expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and cloud services could further exacerbate this shortage.

Nickel: A Major Beneficiary of Electric Mobility

Nickel is likely to be the metal most affected by the energy transition. Rising demand from battery production and electric mobility is driving extraordinary growth: In a net-zero scenario, the market for refined nickel could face a deficit of around 6.5 million metric tons by 2035—which would correspond to nearly 35 percent of projected demand. Anyone betting on battery technologies for the long term cannot afford to overlook strategic nickel procurement.

Aluminum: Capacity Constraints and Electricity Prices

The aluminum market, too, will tighten significantly. The supply shortfall could reach between 5 and 15 million metric tons, accounting for about 10 percent of expected demand. What’s interesting here is the cause: The problem lies less in the availability of raw materials than in the necessary industrial capacity, the required investments, and access to competitive electricity prices. This is because aluminum production is extremely energy-intensive—and this is precisely where the energy transition plays a dual role as both a driver of demand and a cost factor.

A new bull market for metals is on the horizon

The described tensions between supply and demand are likely to push metal prices upward in the long term. Coface forecasts that copper and nickel prices could nearly double over the next decade, while significant price increases are also expected for aluminum. The situation is different for steel and zinc: These metals are considered less vulnerable, as their supply is less constrained and they are unlikely to benefit significantly from the new demand driven by the energy transition.

For industrial companies, the challenge thus extends far beyond the purchase price alone. Securing access to critical metals, expanding recycling capacity, and reducing material consumption through more efficient designs and substitution processes are becoming decisive competitive factors. Companies that focus early on long-term supply relationships, the circular economy, and material efficiency secure a strategic advantage.

Conclusion: Set a Strategic Course Now

The analysis paints a clear picture: The energy transition is fundamentally transforming the metals markets. By 2035, copper, nickel, and aluminum will become scarce resources, and their prices are expected to rise structurally. For decision-makers in industry, construction, the energy sector, and the financial sector, this means that procurement and investment strategies must be adjusted now—before the shortages take full effect. For one thing is certain: The metals of the energy transition are not merely a side effect of decarbonization, but its fundamental material prerequisite.