Global energy markets are experiencing one of their most turbulent periods since the 2022 crisis. An attack on the Saudi Arabian East-West Pipeline (Petroline) and stalled negotiations over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil and gas prices sharply higher. The price of Brent crude briefly jumped to nearly $110 per barrel, while European gas prices climbed from around 45 euros per megawatt-hour in July to over 80 euros/MWh. But how sustainable is this oil price shock really—and which industries and households are bearing the highest costs? An overview based on the latest analysis , “Chokepoints and Pressure Points,” from Allianz Research.

2026 Oil Price Shock: A Roller-Coaster Ride on the Crude Oil Market

The crude oil market is currently like a roller coaster ride. The shutdown of the Saudi Arabian Petroline, which normally produces about 7 million barrels per day, has significantly widened the supply gap in the Persian Gulf. The net decline in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz stands at about 4.3 million barrels per day compared to pre-war levels. Analysts at Allianz Research nevertheless expect this to be a temporary shock: If the pipeline is repaired quickly, the Brent price is likely to average $87 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and settle at around $76 in 2027. However, if the outage lasts for about six weeks, prices could rise to nearly $100—a scenario that companies should factor into their energy cost calculations.

Strategic Reserves: The Buffer Is Shrinking

Unlike in 2022, the U.S. can offer little relief this time around. Strategic oil reserves are near their lowest level in decades; withdrawals have slowed to just 0.3 million barrels per month. Japan and South Korea are even rebuilding their reserves rather than releasing them. China’s crude oil imports are only just beginning to pick up again and remain about 4 million barrels below last year’s level—though Chinese refineries are importing and re-exporting the oil primarily because of high margins, not because of genuine domestic demand. The traditional stabilizer of the oil markets is thus largely failing to function.

Natural Gas in Europe: Fears About Winter

The European gas market is also under pressure. LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been at just 15 to 25 percent of pre-war levels for the past two months, which is why Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are not expected to resume regular deliveries until the first quarter of 2027. Europe must therefore move quickly to replenish its gas storage facilities, thereby crowding Asian LNG demand out of the market. The forecast: The Dutch TTF price is expected to average 65 euros/MWh in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 before falling to around 36 euros/MWh in 2027. The macroeconomic risk remains limited for now—however, a sustained rise above 120 euros/MWh over six months could plunge the eurozone into a recession. A cold winter with poorly filled storage facilities remains the key risk factor for the gas price in 2027.

Refining Bottleneck: Diesel and Gasoline Remain Expensive

While the crude oil market may soon stabilize, the refining sector remains the weak spot. Crack spreads—that is, refining margins for clean products—have reached record highs: 62 euros per barrel in the U.S. and 74 euros per barrel in Europe, which is 68 percent and 92 percent above their five-year averages, respectively. Several factors are driving this: Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, coupled with Russia’s ban on diesel exports; Chinese export restrictions; and a refining infrastructure that has been underinvested in for years. Global refinery investment is expected to fall by 15 percent this year. Because refining capacity cannot be expanded in the short term, fuels and heating oil will remain expensive even if the price of crude oil declines. As a result, global oil demand is expected to shrink by 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026—a genuine destruction of demand caused by high prices.

These industries are being hit hardest by the energy crisis

Six months into the war, it has become clear that the real risk lies not in peak prices, but in the duration of the crisis. Between March and August 2026, fossil fuel importers paid approximately $330 billion more than expected before the war. The sectors most exposed are those dependent on diesel, such as transportation and logistics, agriculture, and construction, as well as Asian petrochemical and fertilizer producers. This is no coincidence: The Gulf region supplies over 40 percent of the world’s sulfur and about 20 percent of nitrogen fertilizer exports—so the crisis is hitting food production directly through fertilizers, diesel, irrigation, and packaging. Companies with flexible, domestic sources of raw materials—such as the U.S. petrochemical industry, which produces its own ethane—are comparatively well insulated.

Inflation for Households: The Full Impact Will Be Felt Later

For consumers, inflation has not yet peaked. Gasoline and diesel prices in Europe typically pass on changes in crude oil costs within one to two months, but gas and electricity bills follow regulated rate schedules. In France, the regulated gas price will rise by 6.3 percent on October 1; in the United Kingdom, the price cap will increase by about 5 pounds per month starting in October. In the U.S., gasoline alone accounted for more than a third of the CPI increase in August; Households are expected to pay about $355 more per year at the gas pump in 2026. These prices hit low-income and rural households particularly hard, as they have little recourse to public transportation or alternative heating systems.

Outlook: How the World Is Rearranging Its Energy Flows

In the long term, the crisis will permanently alter global energy trade routes. The Gulf states are expanding bypass infrastructure such as ADCOP, the Kirkuk-Ceyhan corridor, and the Port of Duqm, while China, India, Japan, and South Korea are reducing their dependence on Gulf oil. For liquefied natural gas (LNG), however, there is no such bypass—Europe’s exposure to gas therefore remains structural. At the same time, persistently high energy prices are making electrification, heat pumps, and electric vehicles more economically viable. The adjustment process is a two-stage one: first, curtailment and a decline in demand; later, structural substitution and investments in flexibility and independence. For companies, this means that energy efficiency, raw material flexibility, and supply resilience will become key competitive factors in the future.

Conclusion: Clarity, Not Panic, in Uncertain Energy Markets

The current energy crisis is primarily a Gulf shock—and is therefore likely to be temporary. Oil prices are expected to drop significantly in 2027, and gas prices could follow suit. But the refining bottleneck, low reserves, and delayed inflation among households will continue to have an impact for a long time to come. Those who carefully calculate energy costs today, assess supply situations, and invest in efficiency will turn the crisis into a strategic advantage. Because one thing is certain: flexibility will be the most valuable commodity in the energy markets of 2026.