In 2026, the German export sector will show the first signs of a slight recovery, but will continue to be marked by uncertainty. The latest data from the ifo Institute and the Federal Statistical Office as well as reports from The News provide a nuanced picture of the current situation.

ifo Export Expectations: Slight Improvement in Sentiment

Container ship

According to the ifo Institute, the ifo export expectations rose to +0.1 points in April 2026, up from -0.7 points in March. Klaus Wohlrabe, head of ifo surveys, assesses the situation by saying that the export sector is currently neither moving forward nor backward. Consequently, sentiment in the export sector has improved somewhat, with positive and negative expectations roughly in balance.

Die News also confirms this trend and emphasizes that sentiment in the German export sector has improved, at least somewhat. It is particularly noteworthy that this slight upturn occurred despite ongoing problems such as material shortages and increased logistics costs.

In June 2026, the trend of a slight recovery continued: Export expectations rose to -3.7 points, up from -5.7 points in May.

Foreign Trade Data from the Federal Statistical Office: Exports Rise Slightly

According to the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), German exports in April 2026 rose by 0.9% on a calendar- and seasonally-adjusted basis compared with March 2026. Imports rose by 1.2% during the same period. Compared with April 2025, exports rose by 3.6% and imports by 6.2%. The foreign trade balance closed with a surplus of 14.5 billion euros in April 2026.

Particularly noteworthy is the trend in trade with the United States and China. This is because exports to the United States rose by 1.8% in April 2026 compared with March, reaching 11.4 billion euros. Exports to the People’s Republic of China, however, fell by 3.5% to 5.8 billion euros. Imports from China rose slightly by 0.2% to 15.6 billion euros, while imports from the United States increased by 7.6% to 8.6 billion euros.

Conclusion: Cautious stabilization

The latest data show that the German export sector is showing the first signs of a slight recovery in 2026. The ifo export expectations and the foreign trade data from the Federal Statistical Office point to a cautious stabilization. Nevertheless, the situation remains tense, particularly in energy-intensive industries and against the backdrop of ongoing material shortages